What Does the Decline of Agriculture Really Mean for Central Asia’s Stability?
If Central Asia is to build a resilient, inclusive, and adaptive economy, it must not retreat from agriculture – it must reimagine it.
As global supply chains break down and climate shocks spread across borders, food systems have quietly become a key part of strategic planning. For Central Asia – a region historically known for its hydrocarbons, transit routes, and post-imperial balancing acts – the agricultural and food sector might seem minor. However, a closer examination reveals a region in transition, where agriculture is neither disappearing nor static, but going through a contested transformation. Whether this transformation results in resilience or regression will shape the region’s economic future.
Between 2020 and 2024, the share of agriculture, forestry, and fishing in GDP declined across all five Central Asian republics. However, the pattern of change masks as much as it reveals.
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Alouddin Komilov is a policy analyst and unit head at the Center for Progressive Reforms and serves as an adjunct assistant professor at Webster University in Tashkent.
Jasur Abdurayimov is an economic analyst at the Center for Progressive Reforms.