Russian Neutrality During India-Pakistan Military Faceoff

During the India-Pakistan military face-off on May 7-10, Russia performed a careful balancing act between the two hostile South Asian countries.

Moscow strongly condemned the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir on April 22, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians, describing it as a “heinous crime with no justification whatsoever.” Russia even expressed full support to India in its fight against terrorism, but it shifted to neutral once the India-Pakistan military exchanges began.

“We are deeply concerned about the intensifying military confrontation between India and Pakistan,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said at the time.

In February 2019, too, when India-Pakistan bilateral tensions soured following the terrorist attack at Pulwama and the Balakot airstrikes that followed, Russia had adopted a similarly neutral stance between Islamabad and New Delhi.

Russia’s stance has raised eyebrows in New Delhi, especially since India and Russia have had a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” since 2010, and New Delhi looks upon Moscow as a “longstanding and time-tested partner.”

Indeed, their strong ties go back to the 1950s, when the Soviet Union not only used its veto  in the United Nations Security Council in support of India on the Kashmir issue but also extended robust support to building the Indian economy and military. In the run-up to the 1971 India-Pakistan War, India signed a Treaty of Friendship with the Soviets. Defense cooperation is robust and Russia is India’s largest weapons supplier. Importantly, India has not directly criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine and stepped up its oil purchase from Moscow, despite Western sanctions and criticism.

However, bilateral ties are not what they were decades ago. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, New Delhi-Moscow ties cooled, especially during the Boris Yeltsin years. While ties improved under Vladimir Putin, India has turned to other partners, in particular to meet its defense needs. As a result of India’s diversification of its sourcing of weapons, Russia’s share in India’s total defense purchases has declined significantly from 72 percent in 2010–14 to 55 percent in 2015-19 and 36 percent in 2020-24, as per SIPRI figures.

As India-Russia relations cooled over time, both countries have turned to other partners. While India’s relations with the U.S. have warmed, Russia has deepened engagement with Pakistan, especially over the past decade.

Pakistan and the Soviet Union were on opposite sides during the Cold War. Not only was Pakistan part of two U.S.-led military alliances, but it also allowed its Peshawar air base to be used by U.S. aircraft for surveillance of the Soviet Union. In the 1980s, Pakistan worked with the United States in the arming and training of mujahideen to end the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Relations have improved over the past decade. In 2014, Russia lifted an embargo on weapons sales to Pakistan. A bilateral defense cooperation agreement and a defense deal followed. That paved the way for joint military exercises. The two countries have been exploring energy cooperation, too.

Two factors drive Russia’s interest in Pakistan. Not only does Pakistan offer Russia another market for its weapons, oil, and gas, but also, they share an interest in containing terrorism originating from Afghanistan and are part of the Russia-China-Pakistan trilateral format to stabilize Afghanistan.

Russo-Pakistani engagement may have increased, but plans for cooperation in the energy sector, such as the Karachi-Lahore gas pipeline, have made no progress. Bilateral trade too is modest and comprises mainly of Russian agricultural exports. Indeed, Pakistan-Russia cooperation is nowhere near what Russia has with India.

Russia’s need for China’s support is likely to be a more important factor determining Russian calculations in South Asia. This reality may make Moscow reluctant to overtly back India.

A Russian government official told The Diplomat on condition of anonymity that Russia’s interest in stability in South Asia has long determined its policy to the region. During the 1971 India-Pakistan war too, he pointed out, Moscow’s support to India was with regard to the flow of refugees into India. It was opposed to India extending the war to its western front.

The official also said that Moscow is keen for India and Pakistan deal with their terrorism concerns through bilateral negotiations. Alternatively, as members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) they could address issues through its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS).

Russia’s reluctance to express solidarity with India during Operation Sindoor has disappointed New Delhi. However, India is no doubt grateful for the contribution of Russian weapons and systems in its recent war against Pakistan. In particular, the Russian-made S-400 air defense system helped India counter waves of Pakistani missiles and drones on the night of May 7-8.

In 2018, India signed a $5.43 billion contract with Russia for five units of the S-400. Three have been delivered and deployed along India’s borders with Pakistan and China. The deputy chief of the Russian mission in India, Roman Babushkin, has confirmed that India will receive the remaining two S-400 squadrons by 2026.